Ventura County Real Estate Market Update: Fall 2026

Quick answer: Ventura County is still a seller's market on paper, with only 2.9 months of housing supply, but conditions are shifting. Prices are down slightly from a year ago, homes are taking longer to sell, and a major insurance change hits October 15, 2026. Here's what's going on, and what it means if you're buying or selling in Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Oxnard, or Camarillo this fall.

Home prices in Ventura County right now

As of Q1 2026, the countywide median sale price across all property types was $880,000. Single-family homes alone had a median of $955,000. In the city of Ventura specifically, the average home value was $898,241 as of July 31, 2026, up only 0.6% over the past year.

Zoom out to the summer numbers and the picture gets more mixed. Median sale prices across the county were down 1.7% year-over-year, and homes averaged 51 days on market before selling, longer than earlier in the year when the median sat closer to 26 days. Sellers are still closing at about 97% of their original asking price, which tells you the market hasn't collapsed. It's slowed down and gotten pickier.

Mortgage rates just moved, and it matters

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.95% as of September 17, 2026, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.76% the week before and 6.71% at the start of the month. A year ago, in September 2025, the same rate averaged 6.26%. That's almost a full point higher than last year, and it changes the monthly payment math for anyone buying right now.

If you're a buyer, that rate move is exactly the kind of thing worth locking in early, before it climbs further, and worth having an honest lender conversation about, not only a rate quote off a website.

The insurance change coming October 15

This is the one most people haven't heard about yet. The California FAIR Plan is raising rates by an average of 29.1% for new and renewing residential policies starting October 15, 2026. The California Department of Insurance approved this after the FAIR Plan originally requested a 35.8% increase.

Ventura County currently has 16,348 residential FAIR Plan policies, carrying about $51.4 million in total annual premiums. This isn't an evenly spread increase. Homes in fire-prone canyons, foothills, and brush-heavy areas will likely see the largest jumps, some homeowners' wildfire premiums could double, while homes in lower-risk suburban areas might see a smaller increase or none at all.

If you're selling a home that currently carries a FAIR Plan policy, or a buyer is going to need one, this is worth bringing up before it becomes a surprise at closing.

Inventory: still tight, but loosening

Ventura County currently has around 1,090 homes for sale, up slightly from last year but still historically low. At 2.9 months of supply, the market is technically still in seller's market territory, since 6 months of supply is usually considered balanced. That said, homes sitting longer (51 days on average this summer) and prices softening slightly both point to buyers having a bit more room to negotiate than they did a year or two ago.

What this means if you're buying

You have a little more breathing room than buyers had in the last couple of years. Homes aren't moving as fast and price growth has flattened. But the higher mortgage rate makes it more important than ever to know your real number before you start looking, not after you fall in love with a house. And if the home you're eyeing carries FAIR Plan insurance, get a real quote early, before the October 15 rate change, not after you're already in escrow.

What this means if you're selling

A slower market means pricing right the first time matters more than it did a year ago. Homes sitting at 51 days on market usually aren't priced wrong by accident, they're priced for a market that no longer exists. If your home carries a FAIR Plan policy, expect buyers to ask about it, and be ready with the answer instead of getting caught off guard.

Frequently asked questions

Is Ventura County a buyer's or seller's market right now?

Technically still a seller's market, with 2.9 months of housing supply. A balanced market is usually considered 6 months. It is a much softer seller's market than the last few years, with prices down slightly and homes taking longer to sell.

What is the median home price in Ventura County in 2026?

The countywide median across all property types was $880,000 in Q1 2026, with single-family homes at $955,000. In the city of Ventura specifically, the average home value was $898,241 as of July 2026.

What is the current mortgage rate for Ventura County buyers?

Mortgage rates are set nationally, not by county. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.95% as of September 17, 2026, according to Freddie Mac.

What is the California FAIR Plan rate increase for 2026?

The FAIR Plan is raising residential rates by an average of 29.1% starting October 15, 2026. Homes in higher wildfire-risk areas will likely see bigger increases than homes in lower-risk areas.

How many homes are for sale in Ventura County right now?

Around 1,090 homes are currently listed for sale across the county, slightly more than last year but still low by historical standards.

What is the property tax rate in Ventura County?

The base rate under California's Proposition 13 is 1% of assessed value, but most homeowners pay an effective rate between 1.0% and 1.3% once local bonds and special assessments are added in.

If you're thinking about buying or selling in Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Oxnard, or Camarillo this fall, I'm happy to run your actual numbers, not the county average. Reach out and let's talk about your specific situation.

Steve Hise | Real Estate Toolbox | eXp Realty | CA DRE #01702055 | 805-424-6226